Tom Dispatch – March 4, 2024
Is Tehran Winning the Middle East?
by Juan Cole
In the midst of Israel’s ongoing devastation of Gaza, one major piece of Middle Eastern news has yet to hit the headlines. In a face-off that, in a sense, has lasted since the pro-American Shah of Iran was overthrown by theocratic clerics in 1979, Iran finally seems to be besting the United States in a significant fashion across the region. It’s a story that needs to be told.
“Hit Iran now. Hit them hard” was typical advice offered by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham after a drone flown by an Iran-aligned Iraqi Shiite militia killed three American servicemen in northern Jordan on January 28th. The well-heeled Iran War Lobby in Washington has, in fact, been stridently calling for nothing short of a U.S. invasion of that country, accusing Tehran of complicity in Hamas’s October 7th terrorist attack on Israel.
No matter that the official Iranian press has vehemently denied the allegation, while American intelligence officials swiftly concluded that the attack on Israel had taken top Iranian leaders by surprise. In mid-November, Reuters reported that Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei informed a key Hamas figure, Ismail Haniya, that his country wouldn’t intervene directly in the Gaza war, since Tehran hadn’t been warned about the October 7th attack before it was launched. He actually seemed annoyed that the leadership of the Hamas paramilitary group, the Qassam Brigades, thought they could draw Tehran and its allies willy-nilly into a major conflict without the slightest consultation. Although initially caught off-guard, as the Israeli counterattack grew increasingly brutal and disproportionate, Iran’s leaders clearly began to see ways they could turn the war to their regional benefit — and they’ve done so skillfully, even as the Biden administration in its full-scale embrace of the most extreme government in Israeli history tossed democracy and international law under the bus.
The gut-wrenching Hamas attacks on civilians at a music festival and those living in left-wing, peacenik Kibbutzim near the Israeli border with Gaza on October 7th initially left Iran in an uncomfortable position. It had allegedly been slipping some $70 million a year to Hamas — though Egypt and Qatar had provided major funding to Gaza at Israel’s request through sanctioned Israeli government bank accounts. And after decades of championing the Palestinian cause, Tehran could hardly stand by and do nothing as Israel razed Gaza to the ground. On the other hand, the ayatollahs couldn’t afford to gain a reputation for being played like a fiddle by the region’s young radicals and so drawn into conventional wars their country can ill afford.
The Adults in the Room?
Despite their fiery rhetoric, their undeniable backing of fundamentalist militias in the region, and their depiction by inside-the-Beltway war hawks as the root of all evil in the Middle East, Iran’s leaders have long acted more like a status quo power than a force for genuine change. They have shored up the rule of the autocratic al-Assad family in Syria, while helping the Iraqi government that emerged after President George W. Bush’s invasion of that country fight off the terrorist threat of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). In truth, not Iran but the U.S. and Israel are the countries that have most strikingly tried to use their power to reshape the region in a Napoleonic manner. The disastrous U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq, and Israel’s wars on Egypt (1956, 1967), Lebanon (1982-2000, 2006), and Gaza (2008, 2012, 2014, 2024), along with its steady encouragement of large-scale squatting on the Palestinian West Bank, were clearly intended to alter the geopolitics of the region permanently through the use of military force on a massive scale.
Only recently, Ayatollah Khamenei bitterly asked, “Why don’t the leaders of Islamic countries publicly cut off their relationship with the murderous Zionist regime and stop helping this regime?” Pointing to the staggering death toll in Israel’s present campaign against Gaza, he was focusing on the Arab countries — Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, and the United Arab Emirates — that, as part of Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner’s “Abraham Accords,” had officially recognized Israel and established relations with it. (Egypt and Jordan had, of course, recognized Israel long before that.)
Given the anti-Israel sentiment in the region, had it, in fact, been rife with democracies, Iran’s position might have been widely implemented. Still, it was a distinct sign of terminal tone deafness on the part of Biden administration officials that they hoped to use the Gaza crisis to extend the Abraham Accords to Saudi Arabia, while sidelining the Palestinians and creating a joint Israeli-Arab front against Iran.
The region had already been moving in a somewhat different direction. Last March, after all, Iran and Saudi Arabia had begun forging a new relationship by restoring the diplomatic relations that had been suspended in 2016 and working to expand trade between their countries. And that relationship has only continued to improve as the nightmare in Israel and Gaza developed. In fact, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi first visited the Saudi capital, Riyadh, in November and, since the Gaza conflict began, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has met twice with his Saudi counterpart. Frustrated by a markedly polarizing American policy in the region, de facto Saudi ruler Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei resorted to the good offices of Beijing to sidestep Washington and strengthen their relations further.
Although Iran is far more hostile to Israel than Saudi Arabia, their leaderships do agree that the days of marginalizing the Palestinians are over. In a remarkably unambiguous statement issued in early February, the Saudis offered the following: “The Kingdom has communicated its firm position to the U.S. administration that there will be no diplomatic relations with Israel unless an independent Palestinian state is recognized on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital, and that the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip stops and all the Israeli occupation forces withdraw from the Gaza Strip.” Significantly, the Saudis even refused to join a U.S.-led naval task force created to halt attacks on Red Sea shipping by the Houthis of Yemen (no friends of theirs) in support of the Palestinians. Its leaders are clearly all too aware that the carnage still being wreaked on Gaza has infuriated most Saudis.
In late January, President Raisi also surprised regional diplomats by traveling to Ankara for talks on trade and geopolitics with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, another sign of his country’s changing role in the region. At the end of the visit, while signing various agreements to increase trade and cooperation, he announced: “We agreed to support the Palestinian cause, the axis of resistance, and to give the Palestinian people their rightful rights.” That’s no small thing. Remember that Turkey is a NATO member and considered a close ally of the United States. To have Erdoğan suddenly cozy up to Iran, while denouncing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war on Gaza as a Hitlerian-style genocide, was an unmistakable slap in Washington’s face.
Meanwhile, Iran, Turkey, and Russia recently issued a joint communiqu￩ that “expressed deep concern over the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza and stressed the need to end the Israeli brutal onslaught against the Palestinians, [while] sending humanitarian aid to Gaza.” From the Biden administration’s point of view, Moscow’s bombing of civilian sites in Ukraine and Iran’s role in crushing Sunni Arab rebels in Syria had been the atrocities that needed attention until Netanyahu suddenly pulled the rug out from under them by upping the ante from mere atrocities to what the International Court of Justice has ruled can plausibly be labeled a genocide. One thing was clear: Washington’s long struggle to exclude Iran from regional influence has now visibly failed.
Iran’s Rising Popularity
At the Gulf International Forum (GIF) last November, Abdullah Baaboud, a prominent Omani academic, said that there had been a “very strong condemnation of Israel from Iran and Turkey, embarrassing some Arab countries that are not using the same language. My worry is that this conflict is leading to the empowerment of Turkey and Iran among the Arab public.” GIF’s executive director, Dania Thafer, concurred. Of that public, she said, “Grief and anger have reached unprecedented levels,” and added, “with each photo out of Gaza, Iran gains more influence across the region.” In short, at remarkably little cost, Iran is unexpectedly winning the battle for regional public opinion and its standing in the Arab world has risen strikingly. Meanwhile, the reputation of the United States has been indelibly tarnished by Washington’s full-throated support for what most in the region do indeed see as a merciless slaughter of thousands of children and other innocent civilians.
A recent opinion poll of Arabs in 16 countries, conducted jointly by the Arab Center in Washington, D.C., and the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies in Doha, Qatar, found that 94% of them considered the American position on Israel’s war “bad.” In contrast, a surprising 48% of them considered the Iranian position positive. To grasp just how remarkable such a finding was, consider that a Gallup poll conducted in 2022 found that Shiite Iran’s name was mud in most Sunni Arab countries and approval of its leadership fell somewhere between 10% and 20%.
In recent months, Iran has made striking use of the weakness of Washington’s case in the region. While the State Department likes to contrast Iran’s “dictatorship” with Israel’s “democratic character,” only recently foreign ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani observed, “The disaster in Gaza removed the mask from the face of the so-called advocates of human rights and showed the extent of vileness, brutality, and lies hidden within the nature of the Israeli regime, whose supporters used to refer to [it] as a symbol of democracy.” Although Iran has among the world’s worst human-rights records, Netanyahu has even managed to take the focus off of that.
Losing the Middle East, Washington-Style
Iran’s allies in the region include Iraqi Shiite militias like the Party of God Brigades (Kata’ib Hizbullah), which first gained prominence in the struggle against the ISIL terrorist group from 2014 to 2018. Those were years when the regular Iraqi army had essentially collapsed and was only gradually being rebuilt. Washington was also focused on destroying ISIL then and so developed a wary de facto alliance with them in its campaign to crush that “caliphate.” In January 2020, however, President Trump was responsible for the drone assassination of the group’s leader, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, along with Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, just after their arrival by plane at Baghdad International Airport in what was evidently an attempt to prevent them, through the Iraqis, from forging an agreement with Saudi Arabia to reduce tensions with Iran.
That assassination led to a long-running, low-intensity conflict between the Shiite militias of Iraq and the 2,500 remaining American troops stationed there. With the onset of the Gaza conflict last October, the Party of God Brigades began launching mortars and drones against Iraqi military bases hosting American soldiers, as well as against small forward operating bases in southeast Syria where some 900 U.S. military personnel are stationed, ostensibly to support the Syrian Kurds in mopping up operations against ISIL. After more than 150 such attacks, on January 28th one of their drones hit Tower 22, a support base where U.S. troops were stationed in northern Jordan, killing three American soldiers, while wounding dozens more.
Iran’s leaders generally back those Shiite militias, but whether they had anything to do with the attack on Tower 22 remains unknown. Officials in Tehran did, however, immediately recognize the danger of escalation once American troops had actually been killed. And indeed, the Biden administration responded with dozens of air strikes on bases and facilities of the Party of God Brigades in Iraq and Syria. Washington Post reporters were told by Iraqi and Lebanese officials that Iran had actually urged caution on the militias with clear effect. Their attacks on bases hosting U.S. troops ceased. At the same time, the Iraqi parliament and government complained bitterly about Washington’s violation of the country’s sovereignty, while heightening preparations to force the withdrawal of the last U.S. troops from their land. In other words, President Biden’s fierce backing of Israel’s war, his decision to increase weapons shipments to that country, and his bombing of pro-Palestinian militias may have led to the achievement of a longstanding Iranian aim: seeing American troops finally leave Iraq.
Meanwhile, in southern Lebanon, where the militant group Hezbollah has been exchanging occasional fire with Israeli forces in support of Gaza, according to the Post reporters, one Hezbollah figure told them that Iran’s message was: “We are not keen on giving Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu any reason to launch a wider war on Lebanon or anywhere else.” Wars are unpredictable, and the Lebanon-Israeli border could still erupt dramatically. Moreover, Iranian pleas for restraint appear to have had far less effect on the Houthi leadership in Yemen’s capital Sanaa, leading to an ongoing American and British bombing campaign on that city and elsewhere in that country that has so far done little to stop Houthi missile and drone attacks against ships in the Red Sea.
So far, however, despite the Republican urge to devastate Iran, that country’s leaders have taken deft advantage of the butchery in Gaza (in which the Israeli military has killed more civilian noncombatants each day than belligerents have in any other conflict in this century). The ayatollahs have significantly increased their popularity even among Arab and Muslim publics that had not previously shown them much favor. They have strengthened their relationship with the Shiites of Iraq and may be on the verge of finally achieving their goal of ending the U.S. military missions in Iraq and Syria.
They have also achieved closer ties with Turkey, while improving relations with Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf Arab oil states. In doing so, they have distinctly blunted the Biden administration’s aim of isolating Iran while tying the wealthier Arab states ever more firmly to Israel through arms and high-tech deals.
In addition, through its backing of and weaponizing of Israel in these last grim months, Washington has made a mockery of the human rights talking points that the U.S. has long deployed against Iran. In the process, Joe Biden has done more than any recent president to undermine both international humanitarian law and democratic principles globally. With 94% of Arab poll respondents viewing American policy in the region as “bad,” one thing is clear: for the moment at least, Iran has won the Middle East.
Juan Cole, a TomDispatchﾠregular, is the Richard P. Mitchell collegiate professor of history at the University of Michigan. He is the author of The Rub￡iy￡t of Omar Khayyam: A New Translation From the Persian and Muhammad: Prophet of Peace Amid the Clash of Empires. His latest book is Peace Movements in Islam. His award-winning blog is Informed Comment. He is also a non-resident Fellow of the Center for Conflict and Humanitarian Studies in Doha and of Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN).
https://tomdispatch.com/is-tehran-winning-the-middle-east/
Pakistan's worst-case scenario arrives: Rigged elections and an economic crisis
Sophie Landrin
In this debt-strangled country, whose political aspirations have just been smothered by the army at the ballot box on February 8, democracy is but a distant memory.
With ballot-box rigging, arbitrary arrests, politicization of the judiciary, media censorship and endless internet blackouts, democracy has become a distant memory in Pakistan. The elections held on February 8, after two extremely turbulent political years, were a sad illustration of this.
Since the spring of 2022, the military and both the Sharif and Bhutto groups have done everything in their power to remove Imran Khan, the former prime minister (2018-2022), without understanding that they were creating a martyr in the process. They threw their opponent in jail, decapitated and dismantled his party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), and hampered his campaign. But, despite all these dirty tricks, the Pakistani people put their champion Khan's candidates in the lead, creating the height of his popularity.
His party should have even won a much larger victory and been in a position to govern, had the ballot been fair. Suspicions about the fairness of the operation, fueled by the abnormally slow pace of the count and the cutting off of cell phones, were confirmed. Senior civil servant Liaquat Ali Chatha, commissioner of Rawalpindi, the Punjab city where the army headquarters are located, claimed that the results of the February 8 general elections had been "manipulated" under his watch. "We made independent candidates [Khan's], who had a lead of 70,000 to 80,000 votes, lose by affixing false stamps. We turned losers into winners," he admitted to the press. He resigned from his post and assured that he would turn himself in to the police for his "heinous crime."
Undermined by instability
As a result of these manipulations, Pakistanis will be governed by the Sharif-Bhutto-Zardari alliance, which they no longer wanted. Long rivals, these two political dynasties ruled the country in alternation for four decades, until the breakthrough of Khan in 2018, elected on a promise to end the hold of these families and fight corruption.
The former cricket captain didn't change the face of the country, but he did shake up the system and challenge military might. He came to power with the help of the army, but ended up falling out with the top brass, who got rid of him by pushing rival clans to outvote him.
Khan formally fell after a vote of no-confidence in Parliament. He was unable to overcome a permanent law in Pakistan: The army has decided the fate of civilian governments since the creation of this young republic, born of the partition with India in 1947 to give the Muslims of the sub-continent their own nation-state. Never in 76
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2024/03/01/pakistan-s-worst-case-scenario-arrives-rigged-elections-and-an-economic-crisis_6577128_23.html
World Socialist Web Site – March 3, 2024
Indian security forces shoot one farmer dead as protest nears three-week mark
Wasantha Rupasinghe
As the protest by hundreds of thousands of farmers in India approaches the end of its third week, at least one farmer has been killed and nearly 200 injured amid a wave of brutal state repression. The crackdown has been spearheaded by the Hindu-Supremacist Bharatiya Janatha Party (BJP) government of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, with the active support of several state governments in northern India.
On February 13, thousands of farmers predominantly from the northern state of Punjab began their “Dilli Chalo” (Let’s go to Delhi) march. Their demands include a legal Minimum Support Price (MSP) for their crops and farm loan waivers. The protest action was initiated by two peasant-farmers’ unions, the Kisan Mazdoor Morcha (KMM, Working-Farmer Front) and the Samyukta Kisan Morcha or United Peasants’ Front (Non-Political).
As a devoted political representative of Indian and foreign capital, the Modi government responded by launching brutal repression, forcing the farmers to encamp on the Punjab side of the Punjab-Haryana state border crossing at Shambhu, which lies some 200 kilometers (125miles) from Delhi. The BJP government has declared war on the farmers by mobilizing tens of thousands of police and paramilitary forces; erecting multilayer barricades with massive concrete blocks and barbed wire; disrupting internet and mobile services and issuing executive orders requiring X/Twitter to censor specific accounts and posts related to the farmers’ protest; and attacking them with tear gas canisters from drones.
The Modi government’s nervous response to the farmers’ agitation is born of fear it could become a rallying point for far broader social opposition to the government’s pro-investor policies and anti-China alliance with Washington. This fear is all the more acute as Modi and his BJP attempt to secure a third successive term as India’s national government in general (Lok Sabha) elections scheduled for April and May. In office since May 2014, Modi has failed to fulfill any of his false electoral promises to India’s toiling masses, including “to double” farmers’ income by 2022. While India’s economy has expanded, the mass of the population remains mired in poverty and extreme economic insecurity, as virtually all the growth in income and wealth has gone to the tiny capitalist elite and their upper middle-class hangers-on.
The farmers’ unions were scheduled to announce on February 29 their plans for the continuation of their march on Delhi. However, in a brief statement issued that day, the unions declared that they were “mourning” the death of Shubhkaran Singh, a young farmer shot by the security forces, and would not announce their future plans until March 3 at the earliest. Shubhkaran’s cremation took place in his native village of Balloh the same day, over a week after his death. Earlier, the unions had insisted that the cremation should not proceed until the authorities filed a case against those responsible for the farmer’s death.
More than respect for Shubhkaran lies behind the unions repeated delays in announcing next steps. Under conditions where the government has rejected farmers’ key demands and indicated its readiness to use massive state violence to prevent the march from proceeding toward Delhi, they are uncertain and divided as to what to do next.
Shubhkaran suffered a fatal head injury caused by a rubber bullet on the evening of February 21. Speaking to The Wire, his uncle Buta Singh blamed the Haryana state government for creating chaos by halting farmers from marching to Delhi, saying, “Shubh would have been alive if farmers were allowed to march peacefully.” According to Buta, Shubhakaran’s family is heavily indebted and possess less than 2.5 acres of farmland. “Shuhb was our only hope to take care of his aged parents and two sisters,” added Buta.
On Tuesday, February 27, the SKM held “Quit WTO Day” protests demanding that India’s agriculture sector not be subject to World Trade Organization rules. According to the SKM, this protest in which farmers parked their tractors along state and national highways without obstructing vehicular traffic was held in more than 400 districts around India. “Farmers have realized the threats to the agriculture sector due to the agreements of India with WTO,” Darshan Pal, an SKM leader, told the Indian Express.
The Punjab state government, run by the Aam Aadmi or Common Man’s Party (AAP), is collaborating with the BJP-led Haryana government in the latter’s brutal repression against the farmers. It has refused to file a FIR (First Information Report) against the security personnel from Haryana whom the protesters hold responsible for Shubhkaran’s death. This exposes the pro-investor character of the AAP government, which has sought to posture as sympathetic to the farmers.
To mollify the mass anger over the young farmer’s killing, the AAP state government announced a 10 million Indian rupee (US $120,000) ex-gratia payment and jobs for Shubhkaran’s next of kin. However, farm union leaders initially rejected the ex-gratia payment, citing the state government’s refusal to file a case against the security personnel involved.
At least nine other farmers have been severely injured, some suffering multiple fractures, during the police repression. Since the protest began, the number of injured has risen to around 180. Patiala District civil surgeon Raminder Kaur told The Wire that most of the injuries were due to the dropping of tear gas shells or the firing of rubber bullets. Apart from this, three further casualties have been reported. Two farmers died from cardiac arrest at the protest site, and one fatality was caused by a suspected bullet injury, she said.
Giving a glimpse of the brutality of the ongoing repression against the farmers, Haryana police picked up another farmer, 32-year-old Pritpal Singh from Sangrur, and brutally assaulted him. He was “stuffed in a sack.” He is currently at PGI Hospital in Rohtak in Haryana with a broken limb and other severe injuries. Speaking to the Newslaundry website, Pritpal’s wife Amandeep Kaur said: “His face was disfigured from the beating. His teeth are broken. Even after two days, his nose is bleeding. He has a severe head injury too.” By unleashing such ruthless police violence, Modi and the Indian ruling elite want to send a clear message not only to the farmers in other parts of India, but also to the entire working class: the BJP government will not tolerate any opposition to its pro-investor policies.
Following the Feb. 21 clash that resulted in Shubhkaran Singh’s death, the BJP-led Haryana state government threatened farm union leaders that it will invoke the National Security Act (NSA) 1980. Under the NSA, a state or Central government is empowered to detain a person for one year or more if there is reason to believe that he/she may be engaging in “an act threatening national security.” Amid heavy criticism and mounting anger from farmers against this warning, the government authorities were forced to back-track and withdraw their threat. It also released all 16 farmer leaders and activists whom it had taken into detention.
Speaking to the Indian Express, a senior Haryana government official admitted that the reason for the about-face on invoking the NSA was that it would have proven “counterproductive and invited outrage not only from the farmers but also other sections of society.”
The government has combined its brutal repression with offers of some meager concessions to induce the farmers to stop their protest.
During the fourth round of discussions between peasant-farmer leaders and government ministers on February 18, the BJP central government offered contract-based “assurances” that various government agencies would buy five crops— the pulses, archar, tur and urad, and corn and cotton—at an MSP. Well aware that the protesting farmers would angrily turn down such “assurances,” which fall well short of their demands, the SKM “outrightly rejected” the proposal, which the government in any case soon backtracked on. Rather than guaranteeing a minimum crop price, the BJP Agriculture Minister said the five crops supposedly subject to it would be procured on a “contract basis.” The government’s “real intention” was thereby “exposed,” said KMM Coordinator Sarwan Singh Pandher.
Farmers have vowed that they will not accept anything less than the full implementation of the MSP recommendation of the government-appointed Swaminathan commission. After several years of deliberations, the commission proposed in 2006 that the MSP should be at least 150 percent of the weighted average cost of production. It also said that the MSP should include the cost of all inputs and the “cost” of renting the land, even in the case of tiller-owned lands. Given the fact that the BJP government failed to fulfill many of its major promises made during the first Dilli Chalo in 2020-21, farmers are rightly suspicious of the “promises” being made by the BJP this time.
For decades, India’s governments whether led by the BJP, the Congress Party, or various caste- and ethno-regionalist parties have worked to commercialize the agriculture sector, while cutting support for small farmers including subsidies for fertilizer and other key inputs.
While farmer union leaders are saying they are intensifying their agitation by mobilizing other farmers and trade unions, these actions are based on the bankrupt perspective that the government can be pressured into changing course. In fact, the Modi government will not make any serious concessions to the farmers, because to do so would cut across its pro-investor policies and have the potential to galvanize broader social opposition, above all from the working class.
The opposition political parties including the Congress and the Stalinist Communist Party (Marxist) or CPM are posing as supporters of the farmers with the aim of using the protest to boost the fortunes of their Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) electoral bloc. Led by the dynastic Congress Party, till recently the Indian ruling class’s preferred party of national government, INDIA offers the bourgeoisie a right-wing alternative government to Modi’s BJP. One no less committed than it to “pro-investor” reform and the Indo-US military-security alliance.
As during the year-long 2020-21 farmers’ protest, the CPM, while feigning support for the farmers, is working to keep the working class on the sidelines. Above all, the Stalinists seek to prevent the working class from intervening as an independent force, fighting to rally the farmers and all the rural toilers, above all the agricultural labourers, in a mass movement against the Modi regime and the entire Indian ruling class and for a workers’ government committed to socialist policies. This was particularly shown during the Feb. 16 Grameen bandh (rural shutdown) called by the SKM and the joint platform of central trade unions, which is led by the CPM-affiliated Center of Indian Trade Unions (CITU). Underscoring the Stalinists’ perspective of subordinating the working class to the INDIA alliance, CITU President K. Hemantha, said the aim of the bandh was “to defeat the BJP government in the 2024 elections.”
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2024/03/04/hphi-m04.html?pk_campaign=newsletter&pk_kwd=wsws
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