The Conversation – June 13, 2024
Will the New, more Specific UN Ceasefire Resolution for Gaza Succeed?
By Marika Sosnowski, The University of Melbourne
The UN Security Council has passed yet another resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. This is the fourth such resolution adopted by the council since Hamas’ October 7 attack on southern Israel and the launching of Israel’s war in Gaza.
Little has come from the three previous resolutions, all of which have been legally binding since they were passed by the Security Council:
a resolution on March 25 calling for a ceasefire that was ignored by Israel
a resolution on December 22 calling for a “sustainable cessation of hostitilies”, which also had no immediate practical effect
a resolution on November 15 calling for “humanitarian pauses”, which did nothing to alleviate Palestinian suffering or secure the release of hostages.
So, what is new about this latest resolution? And does it have any more chance of succeeding than previous attempts at a ceasefire?
What is new
First, this most recent resolution, which was drafted by the United States and supported by a vote of 14-0 (with Russia abstaining), has much more specific terms. For example, it lays out a three-stage approach to achieving a “permanent end to hostilities”.
In this first stage, all fighting will stop and some of the remaining hostages will be returned in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. And if the negotiations take longer than six weeks, the ceasefire will continue.
The document also calls for the return of Palestinians to their homes and neighbourhoods, and for housing units to be delivered by the international community.
This staged approach and inclusion of housing units is new, perhaps with the realisation that over half of Gaza’s buildings have been destroyed and more than 80% of the population has been displaced, often multiple times.
The resolution is also explicitly linked to the ongoing negotiations being carried out by Qatar, with the help of Egypt and the US, to achieve a ceasefire.
This is a positive given Qatar successfully negotiated the only temporary pause in the fighting for seven days in November. This resulted in the release of around 100 hostages, in exchange for 240 Palestinian prisoners.
This current resolution also specifically rejects any territorial or demographic changes to the Gaza Strip, which is a welcome addition given that many fear the re-occupation of Gaza by Israel.
What is not new
Since the beginning of the war, the multiple resolutions passed by the UN Security Council and General Assembly have largely gone unactioned.
Hamas has previously signalled it is willing to accept the terms of a similar ceasefire negotiated by Qatar. The militant group is also now saying it will abide by the terms of the new UN resolution “that are consistent with the demands of our people and resistance”.
Despite the fact the current resolution specifically mentions Israel has “accepted” its terms, there has been no sign that Israel will, in fact, abide by its obligations under international law.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly been sceptical about the plan, with his office saying any permanent ceasefire before the “destruction of Hamas military and governing capabilities” is achieved is a “non-starter”.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was also apparently still trying to sell the resolution to Israel on Monday. This seems to negate Israel’s presumed acceptance of the ceasefire.
A better chance of success?
Arguably, some of the more specific and detailed terms of this resolution give it a better chance of success than previous UN resolutions.
This is because if parties to a ceasefire have invested time into negotiating and have agreed to specific terms, they know what needs to happen, when and how. There is also greater likelihood the two sides will abide by the terms because this level of specificity ensures some level of accountability from outside observers and the international community.
We saw this in the November temporary truce agreement, which had very specific terms that were followed by both Hamas and Israel.
Another example from a different conflict is the 2002 ceasefire agreement between the government of Sri Lanka and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) militant group. This ceasefire, which lasted for several years, included references to freedom of troop and civilian movement in specific geographical locations. It also specified landmarks to be used as de-militarised zones.
Problematically, while the current Security Council resolution calls for the effective distribution of humanitarian assistance at scale, including housing units, aid access to Gaza has been stymied by Israel, which now controls all entry points.
Interestingly, the resolution also specifically rejects “any attempt at demographic or territorial change”. However, it omits wording from a previous draft that had included mention of a “buffer zone” Israel is currently building along the border inside Gaza.
And despite the welcome addition of more specific chronological phases in this resolution, the text has some of the same vagueness as previous resolutions, particularly around what exactly will happen in phases two and three.
Phase two seems to link the continuation of the ceasefire with the negotiations being led by Qatar. But, as we have already seen during the war, negotiations can easily be abandoned or dismissed by one or both sides of a conflict.
Likewise, phase three offers the chance for a “multi-year reconstruction plan for Gaza”, but offers no practical detail on how this would be accomplished.
Actions matter more than words
At this stage of this devastating conflict, any halt in fighting that alleviates the suffering of Palestinians is welcome.
However, I remain sceptical this resolution will be any more successful at halting the violence than its predecessors. Success will only come when both parties – but, in particular, Israel as the side with the greater military power – show they are willing to implement a ceasefire through their actions.
Marika Sosnowski, Postdoctoral research fellow, The University of Melbourne
Blinken says US working to 'close the deal' on Gaza cease-fire
US secretary of state addresses joint news conference with Qatari counterpart in Doha
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday said Hamas has proposed changes to a potential cease-fire deal in Gaza, and Washington is working for an agreement.
"Hamas has proposed numerous changes to the proposal that was on the table. Some of the changes are workable, some are not," Blinken told a joint news briefing with Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani in Doha.
He underscored Washington's commitment to narrowing gaps "to close the deal" with the mediators, which also includes Qatar and Egypt.
"Based on what we've seen and what I've discussed with the prime minister and our Egyptian colleagues, we're determined to try to bridge the gaps. And I believe those gaps are bridgeable," he said.
Blinken, on his eighth Middle East tour in last eight months, stressed the urgent need for a truce in Gaza, saying: "The longer this goes on, the more people will suffer, and it's time for haggling to stop and a cease-fire to start."
He, however, added that "Hamas will not be allowed to decide the future of this region and its people," hinting at post-war scenario in the Palestinian enclave where Israel has killed more than 37,000 Palestinians since an Oct. 7, 2023 attack by the resistance group.
"We are determined and insist that Israel or any other country adhere to international humanitarian law, the laws of armed conflict, uphold human rights, and not commit gross violations of those rights."
The US secretary of state announced plans to "put forward proposals for key elements of a day-after plan, including concrete ideas for how to manage governance, security, reconstruction" in Gaza "in the coming weeks."
"We will continue to do everything we can to support them, particularly in this time of need," he said.
Blinken also reminded that he announced $400 million in additional US support to Palestinians, bringing the total to $670 million in eight months.
US President Joe Biden on May 31 announced a three-phase plan for a permanent end to hostilities and reconstruction of Gaza. The comprehensive roadmap, he said, was offered by Israel, which has not supported it publicly. The plan has also been endorsed by the UN Security Council.
Before Qatar, Blinken visited Egypt, Israel and Jordan.
Blinken seeks to exonerate Israel from obstructing Gaza truce deal: Hamas
Palestinian group Hamas says it dealt "positively" and "responsibly" with all proposals to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and release all prisoners.
Palestinian group Hamas has accused US Secretary of State Antony Blinken of seeking to exonerate Israel from obstructing the ceasefire.
"Blinken’s attempts to exonerate the (Israeli) occupation and hold us responsible for obstructing a ceasefire are part of his country’s complicity in the war of annihilation," Hamas said in a statement late Wednesday.
On Monday, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution supporting a Gaza ceasefire proposal outlined by US President Joe Biden.
On May 31, Biden said that Israel presented a three-phase deal that would end the brutal war in Gaza and secure the release of hostages held in the coastal enclave.
The plan includes a ceasefire, a hostage-prisoner exchange and the reconstruction of Gaza.
Clear contradiction
Hamas said it dealt "positively" and "responsibly" with all proposals to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and release all detainees.
"Israel continued to reject any permanent ceasefire, in a clear contradiction with the UN Security Council resolution and Biden’s initiative," the group added.
It urged Washington to pile pressure on Israel to accept a deal that would lead to a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.
On Wednesday, Blinken said that Hamas has proposed numerous changes to the ceasefire proposal outlined by Biden, adding that "some of the changes are workable, some are not."
A day earlier, Blinken said Netanyahu had "reaffirmed his commitment" to a Gaza ceasefire proposal during their meeting on Monday evening.
Netanyahu or any member of his government has not publicly welcomed the proposal.
Cease-fire hopes hang in balance as Israel continues Gaza attack
Hopes for a cease-fire in Gaza hung in the balance Thursday as Israeli helicopters struck southern Gaza's Rafah, while U.S. top diplomat said a truce was still possible.
Israeli ground forces have been operating in Rafah, near the Egyptian border, since early May to pursue Hamas members, despite widespread international alarm over the fate of displaced people crowded in the city.
Western areas of Rafah came under heavy Israeli fire from the air, sea and land, residents said.
"There was very intense fire from warplanes, Apaches (helicopters) and quadcopters, in addition to Israeli artillery and military battleships, all of which were striking the area west of Rafah," one of them told the Agence France-Presse (AFP).
The al-Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of the Palestinian resistance group Hamas, said its fighters were battling Israeli troops on the streets of the same area.
The Gaza war was triggered by the Oct. 7 Hamas incursion that caused the death of nearly 1,200 people and seized more than 250 as hostages, according to Israeli tallies.
Israel's war on Gaza, in comparison, has killed more than 37,200 Palestinians, the Gaza Health Ministry has said, and reduced most of the narrow, coastal enclave to wasteland.
'Close the deal'
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in Doha on Wednesday for the last stop of a tour to promote Biden's cease-fire roadmap, said the United States would work with regional partners to "close the deal."
Hamas responded to mediators Qatar and Egypt late Tuesday. Blinken said some of its proposed amendments "are workable and some are not."
A senior Hamas official, Osama Hamdan, said the group sought "a permanent cease-fire and complete withdrawal" of Israeli troops from Gaza, demands repeatedly rejected by Israel.
The plan includes a six-week cease-fire, a hostage-prisoner exchange and Gaza's reconstruction.
It would be the first truce since a week-long November pause in fighting that saw hostages freed and Palestinians released from Israeli jails.
Blinken said Israel was behind the plan, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose government has far-right members strongly opposed to the deal, has yet to formally endorse it.
Blinken expressed hopes that gaps could be closed.
"We have to see ... over the course of the coming days whether those gaps are bridgeable," he said.
In a statement early Thursday, Hamas urged Blinken to put "direct pressure" on Israel.
"He continues to talk about Israel's agreement of the latest (cease-fire) proposal, but we have not heard any Israeli official speak out on this," it said.
'Severe suffering'
The war has led to widespread destruction of homes and other infrastructure, with hospitals out of service and the UN warning of famine.
The World Health Organization (WHO) said more than 8,000 children aged younger than five have been treated for acute malnutrition in Gaza, where only two stabilization centers for severely malnourished patients currently operate.
"Despite reports of increased delivery of food, there is currently no evidence that those who need it most are receiving sufficient quantity and quality of food," said WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
"I hope for a cease-fire," he said. "What has happened to us is enough."
Some Gazans have called on Hamas to do more to secure an agreement.
"Hamas does not see that we are tired, we are dead, we are destroyed," a Gaza man told AFP, giving his name as Abu Shaker.
"What are you waiting for?" he said. "The war must end at any cost."
Along with the fighting in Rafah, overnight strikes and shelling elsewhere in the coastal territory were reported Thursday.
Gaza's civil defense agency said three bodies were recovered from a home in Nuseirat, central Gaza, after an Israeli strike.
Hamas request of China, Russia, Turkey guarantorship for cease-fire
Speaking to Daily Sabah on Thursday, Turkish diplomatic sources confirmed that Hamas sought guarantorship of the country in a cease-fire deal with Israel.
Israeli media outlets reported on Wednesday that the Palestinian resistance movement Hamas wanted Türkiye, along with Russia and China, to act as guarantors in any cease-fire deal with Israel. Israel’s Kan11 news quoted an Israeli source involved in the negotiations for the release of hostages held by Hamas, saying that the group’s demands did not appear in the previous drafts it submitted for the deal. Media reports say Israel and the United States rejected this condition.
In the early days of the latest flare-up of the conflict on Oct. 7, Türkiye expressed its willingness to act as a guarantor state for any deal to end it. Ankara champions a two-state solution to end the conflict permanently and is a staunch opponent of Israel’s attacks on the Gaza Strip that have killed over 37,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, which it describes as a genocide attempt. Israel is currently on trial at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for genocide. Türkiye also maintains close ties with the Hamas leadership and is among the countries defining them as a resistance group. Türkiye seeks to convince world powers to join it in a permanent solution to the ongoing conflict. To mobilize the international community, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan made personal visits and held phone calls with leaders of the countries with a say over the matter, from Qatar and Egypt to Saudi Arabia and Russia.
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