RT.COM – January 22, 2024

Bloody red line:
Israel risks dragging another Arab country into war

Israel plans to recapture the Philadelphi Corridor, but experts warn that might be a bad idea

The 14km border that separates Gaza from Egypt has been used for years by militants in the enclave to smuggle weapons, technology, money, and personnel. To stop that from happening, Israel is now mulling the possibility of reoccupying it.

It's been more than a hundred days since Israel kicked off its Iron Swords operation in Gaza following the bloody attack of October 7, when more than 1,200 Israelis were brutally murdered at the hands of Hamas militants.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to punish those responsible for the massacre, which also left more than 5,000 people wounded. He further promised to eliminate the Islamic group that controls Gaza, and to de-militarize the enclave that has posed a threat to Israel's security. But more than three months down the line, officials in West Jerusalem still seem to be scratching their heads over how to achieve those goals.

The main challenge is the continuous flow of arms, technology, and money to Gaza, from which the militants of Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad continue to fire rockets. And Israel believes it is coming from the Sinai Peninsula, smuggled through the border via the so-called Philadelphi Route.

The term emerged in 1982 following the peace treaty between Israel and Egypt and the subsequent demarcation of the border. According to that agreement, both sides deployed troops on their respective sides along the 14km line, a move that promised stability and security. But several years later, in 1987, during the First Intifada, Palestinians started digging tunnels under the axis, through which they smuggled goods and weapons, as well as militants and money.

By 2005, when Israel evacuated its 17 settlements from Gaza and handed over control of the axis to the Palestinian Authority, the Islamic group already had hundreds of such tunnels, and their numbers continued to grow – especially after Hamas seized power in the enclave in 2007.

"Initially, Egypt didn't exert any significant efforts into stopping that smuggling, simply because it brought a lot of economic benefits to both sides," said Dr. Ely Karmon, a senior research scholar at The International Institute for Counter-Terrorism.

"It was during this time that Hamas boosted its arms arsenal, smuggling in weapons, money and technologies. It was also then, when Iranian and Hezbollah experts and technicians arrived in Gaza and taught Hamas engineers on how to develop their own industry," he added. 

Then, in 2011, came the Arab Spring. The long-term ruler of Egypt, Hosni Mubarak, was deposed, and the radical elements in Sinai started rearing their heads. Terror attacks have become a regular phenomenon, especially after 2014, when Daesh (Islamic State/IS) took control over most jihadist groups on the peninsula, establishing the so-called Wilayat Sinai. 

"These groups were against the newly established government of President Abdel Fattah A-Sisi. They were targeting the army and killing civilians across the country, so Cairo came to realize that there was cooperation between Hamas and those terrorists and it decided to break that link," said Karmon.

Over the years, Cairo exerted multiple efforts into fighting the threat emanating from Sinai. It boosted its military presence on the peninsula, launched counterterrorism operations, and flooded hundreds of tunnels that linked Gaza to Egypt. But experts in Israel believe not all the loopholes were eliminated. Even more so, they are still being used to smuggle militants, weapons, and potentially Israeli hostages.

This is why in recent weeks, a number of Israeli politicians, including Netanyahu, have stated that the Philadelphi Route should be recaptured, with Israel establishing full control over the territory.

Karmon maintains Israel has no intention of occupying the area. Instead, the idea is that his country would just beef up its military presence in the region to maintain security.

"Recapturing the area would be very difficult to execute, simply because we have a peace agreement with Egypt. Of course, there are right-wing voices who are calling for the occupation of Gaza or the building of settlements there, but Netanyahu understands the importance of these strategic relations with Cairo and he will not damage those ties," the expert asserted.

However, in Egypt some are still worried. Hany Soliman, executive director of the Arab Center for Research and Studies (ACRS) in Cairo, says Netanyahu's words are backed by actions.

These include negotiations with the Americans on the construction of an underground wall on the Egyptian side. The project, which promises to be 1km deep and 13km long, will be equipped with sensors and other technology, enabling digging to be detected, and as such deterring radicals from trying their luck.

The project is set to be funded by the US. But the possibility of such an endeavor taking place depends largely on the will of the Egyptians, says Soliman, and they might not want to rush it.

"Firstly, on the political and security levels, Egypt will not sign such a protocol, especially at a time when there is a lack of clarity on Israeli intentions and when there are concerns about Israeli attempts to pass and impose their displacement plan," he said. 

"And, secondly, let's not forget the Palestinian Authority. It has full rights to object to this project. They can claim that the occupation of the Philadelphi axis is inconsistent with the Oslo Accords and that it infringes on their sovereignty".

And there is also public opinion. A recent poll conducted in 16 Arab states by the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies showed that 92% of those asked felt solidarity with the Palestinians. Of the respondents, 89% refused for their country to normalize relations with Israel, while 36% said their governments should severe relations with officials in Jerusalem. That might mean tighter security cooperation between Israel and Egypt on the Philadelphi axis is a mission too tough to implement.

It doesn't mean, however, that Israel will not try. At the end of October, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) captured large amounts of ammunition allegedly smuggled from Syria to Sinai, and from there to Hamas through the Philadelphi axis. Many of these arms were used by the Hamas militants during their deadly October 7 attack, and the fear in West Jerusalem is that the Islamic group would not be eliminated until the issue of the notorious border is resolved. 

But Soliman warns that the establishment of an Israeli presence on the line will lead to dire consequences.

"It will be interpreted as a blatant assault on the peace agreement between the two states. It will risk making Egypt a party to a dispute over borders, and it will destroy the agreements between Cairo and the Palestinian Liberation Organization - something that will eventually undermine peace [in the region - ed.]".

The problem is that the damage might not be limited to diplomacy, argues Soliman. The war in Gaza has displaced more than a million Palestinians from their homes, who found refuge in the south of the enclave in Rafah on the border with Egypt. An increased Israeli presence there might create further fear and panic among those masses, something that could push them to breach the border forcefully and flood Egypt.

President Sisi has already labeled such a scenario a "red line" for Egypt. He also indicated his country would not hesitate to use force to prevent it from happening.

"In such an event, Egypt may be required to take military action and increase forces to secure the border. It would lead the conflict to a very dangerous and sensitive phase and it would increase the chances of collision and confrontation," warned Soliman.

In Israel, Karmon tends to agree with this assessment. He understands the complexity of the issue but remains optimistic. "Right now there are negotiations [between Israel, Egypt, and the US] that are aimed at finding the right formula and make sure that stability is restored," he says. 

By Elizabeth Blade, RT Middle East correspondent

https://www.rt.com/news/591091-israel-plans-recapture-philadelphi/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Email

The Conversation January 23, 2024

Why US strikes will only embolden the Houthis, not stop their Attacks
on Ships in the Red Sea

By Sarah G. Phillips from University of Sydney

As the Houthi militant group in Yemen ramps up its attacks on vessels in the Red Sea – ostensibly in response to what it calls Israel’s “genocidal crimes” in Gaza – the US and UK have responded with multiple military strikes in the last week. The US has also re-listed the group as a global terrorist organisation.

The hope is these strikes will pressure the Iran-aligned Houthis to back down. It won’t, however. Short of a complete halt to Israel’s war in Gaza and a 180-degree shift in Western support for Israel’s approach, there is little that will dissuade the Houthis to change course in the foreseeable future.

There are three main reasons for this, none of which are principally about Iran’s regional strategy.

The group has already survived years of airstrikes

The first, and most obvious, reason is the Houthi movement, whose political wing is known as Ansar Allah, has already withstood years of airstrikes in its war with a Saudi-led and Western-backed coalition from 2015–2022.

Prior to this, the Houthis fought six wars against the central Yemeni government from 2004–2010. Guerrilla warfare is not new to them, and harassing ships off their coast does not require sophisticated weapons.

The blockade that accompanied much of the recent war (which is currently in a shaky truce) also helped the Houthis to finetune their weapon smuggling networks from Iran, as well as their own domestic weapon production.

As a result, airstrikes alone are unlikely to deliver a knockout blow to their military capacity and will almost certainly increase their appetite for a fight.

That is because they can – for the first time – more strongly frame their actions in the context of fighting against the US and Israel, per their slogan: “God is Great, death to America, death to Israel, a curse upon the Jews, victory to Islam.”

With dissent rising, the Houthis have found ‘quasi-legitimacy’

The second reason they are unlikely to be deterred is more important, but less understood, because it is about Yemen’s domestic politics.

The Houthis currently control much of Yemen, including the capital Sana’a, which accounts for around 70% of the population. The people in these regions have been subjected to years of acute and structural violence by the Houthis. This includes:

• the forced disappearances of political opponents and religious minorities
• the extrajudicial killings of journalists and executions of civilians, including minors
• the recruitment of child soldiers
• withholding public sector salaries since 2016
• the laying of landmines in populated areas, sniper attacks on civilians and the use of siege warfare
• the systematic extortion of businesses and implementation of a caste-based taxation system
• the implementation of male guardianship rules for women
• and the weaponisation of food and water, including the diversion of food aid for private enrichment.

• It is important to note the Saudi-led coalition and internationally recognised Yemeni government have also been accused of committing war crimes and grave human rights violations in Yemen, including the ruthless bombardment of civilians and civilian infrastructure.

At least 150,000 people are estimated to have died violently in the war that began in 2015, though the challenges with collecting such data are considerable. This also does not include the many more thousands that have died from preventable starvation and disease.

The behaviour of the Houthis in power has made them deeply unpopular. Dissent is dangerous due to the sophisticated system of repression and neighbourhood surveillance the Houthis have imposed in the areas they control. But Yemenis began taking to the street in protest last year anyway in Ibb and the besieged city of Taﾒizz.

Then on September 26, just before Hamas’ assault on southern Israel and Israel’s bombardment of Gaza, Yemenis defied the authorities in large numbers.

In protests in the capital city of Sana’a, they celebrated the anniversary of the 1962 revolution that ousted the country’s leader, the Zaydi Imam, Mohammed al-Badr – and with him, the kinship-based autocracy that many Yemenis claim the Houthis seek to reinstate.

Seeing this (rightly) as a demonstration against them, the Houthis were shaken. Amnesty International reported they responded with an “alarming wave of arrests” and “a draconian show of force.”

Against a background of rising dissent at home, the Houthis’ actions and Western retaliation have given the group the gift of “quasi-legitimacy,” according to Yemeni analysts. The US-led strikes also give credence to the Houthis’ demands that critics “shut their mouths.”

And just as important, the US strikes can boost the Houthis’ military recruitment efforts. And this could help them attempt to seize the government-held oil wells in Marib again, which the group needs to become economically sustainable.

Anger is rising against the West across the region

The third reason the Houthis are unlikely to be deterred by airstrikes or a terrorist designation is that their actions articulate the wider region’s fury at Israel’s war in Gaza, which has so far claimed the lives of 25,000 Palestinians, and the decades of Western support for Israel’s policies in occupied Gaza and the West Bank.

They have also tapped into profound grievances about the West’s policies more generally and its record of reinforcing unpopular regimes in the face of popular action for change. This includes the selling of weapons and bestowing of political legitimacy to authoritarian regimes in exchange for what the West considers “stability” in the world order.

Yemenis are, however, keenly aware that the Houthis’ rise and expansion was enabled by this same external push for stability, which came at the expense of Yemenis’ ability to determine local solutions to local problems.

By centring the defence of Palestinians in their actions, the Houthis have found a way to discredit their domestic opponents – something that has largely eluded them for 20 years. This will make them even harder to dislodge from power and will likely consign ordinary Yemenis to further violence at their hands.

Sarah G. Phillips, Professor of Global Conflict and Development at The University of Sydney; Non-Resident Fellow at the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, University of Sydney

https://theconversation.com/why-us-strikes-will-only-embolden-the-houthis-not-stop-their-attacks-on-ships-in-the-red-sea-221588

Information Clearing House – January 23, 2024

War on Yemen? Don’t Expect A Cakewalk

The US aims to assert its dominance in the region, aligning with Israel’s strategic interests.

By Mike Whitney

On Wednesday, the Biden administration labeled the Houthis a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist group,” opening the door to the imposition of sweeping sanctions. Aid groups immediately responded with warnings that the designation threatens to greatly intensify Yemen’s humanitarian crisis. As a result of the almost decade-long war the Saudi regime has waged on Yemen with US arms and logistical support, more than half of the country’s population—over 18 million people—need food and other assistance…US Imperialism Setting Middle East Ablaze, World Socialist Web Site

The Biden administration is in the process of re-imposing the 7 year-long embargo on Yemen that cut off food, water and essential medical supplies to the civilian population. This is how Washington weaponizes the “terrorist” designation in order to use famine as an instrument of foreign policy. The clear intention is to starve the population into submission so the US can advance its geopolitical agenda in the region. In this case, Washington’s strategic objectives remain largely concealed from the general public, so we will list them here:

The United States has three main goals in Yemen:

• To eliminate an ally of Iran. (The Houthis)
• To control critical shipping lanes in the Red Sea.
• To construct an oil pipeline across Yemen in the event that the US launches a war on Iran and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted.
  Now that Israel is moving ahead with its ethnic cleansing operation, we can add a forth objective to the list:
• To militarily engage any army or militia in the region that tries to derail Tel Aviv’s territorial ambitions.

• Keep in mind, the current war is not merely an expansion of Israeli territory, but an attempt to establish Israel as the regional hegemon. Israel aspires to be the dominant power in the Middle East unopposed by its current set of rivals. The Biden administration is assisting in that project mainly because US interests coincide with Israel’s long-term plans. Check out this excerpt from an article at the World Socialist Web Site:

The genocide in Gaza is an integral part of US imperialism’s strategy of global war in pursuit of world hegemony. It is one front in an emerging world war, along with Washington’s proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, its escalating war throughout the Middle East, whose central target is Iran, and its war preparations against China. Bernie Sanders backs US attack on Yemen, World Socialist Web Site

In short, US global ambitions segue perfectly with Israel’s regional strategy. Neither country believes it can achieve its broader aims through peaceful means due in part to the lack of critical resources and flagging economic output. So military aggression is the only path forward. The primary targets in the impending conflict are Iran, Russia and China. Here’s more from the World Socialist Web Site:

These actions are preparatory to a head-on clash with Iran that could come at any time. Not only has the Pentagon planned for such war for decades, but, from the standpoint of US imperialism, its strategic aims have never been more vital than today, when the US is in a de facto war with Russia and plotting for war with China. Its goal in targeting Iran is to secure unbridled dominance over the world’s principal oil-exporting region, a region uniquely positioned to project geopolitical power across Eurasia, Africa and the entire Indian Ocean region…

The reality is that these are different arenas in a rapidly developing global conflict, as US imperialism desperately seeks to offset the decline in its relative economic power and establish global hegemony though war, plunder and the revival of colonial subjugation.

…the dynamic across the Middle East is one of rapid escalation toward a regional conflagration led by Washington, its imperialist allies and their principal regional client, Israel. US imperialism setting Middle East ablaze, World Socialist Web Site

Yemen is a small but crucial part of the overall strategy. The billionaire elites who use political agents to implement policy, are determined to eradicate the threat to commercial shipping in the Red Sea posed by the Houthis. This is the underlying motive behind Washington’s drive to war. Not surprisingly, it was also the proximate cause for the Saudi-led intervention although the media diverted attention to the less-consequential political power struggle.

The truth is, Washington’s current war on Yemen is merely a continuation of the Saudi-Houthi conflict. In 2015, the Saudis spearheaded a coalition of 9 Arab countries (backed by the United States) that conducted massive airstrikes on the country while imposing a naval blockade that resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Yemenis. The ostensible goal of the intervention, was to prop up Washington’s preferred political leader, Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. Had the Saudis prevailed in the conflict, the US would have achieved its main strategic objectives without having to involve itself in the actual fighting. But the Saudis did not win which is why there has been a lull in the action while US foreign policy elites concocted another plan for eliminating the Houthis and delivering the strategically located Yemen into the trusted hands of a US-backed puppet. (Sound familiar?) The recent outbreak of hostilities between the US and the Houthis over the Houthis blockade of commercial ships linked to Israel, has provided the US with an opportunity to lock-horns with the Arab militia and use its firepower advantage to rout the enemy and achieve what Washington’s proxies (The Saudis) could not achieve.

While the present war between the US and Yemen is still in its early stages, (Note: The US has conducted 5 major airstrikes on Houthis positions on the mainland while the Houthis have attacked 4 commercial ships in the last 5 days.) US chances of winning are not that encouraging. The Houthis are a well-organized, highly-motivated, battle-hardened killing machine that’s familiar with the terrain and has good grasp of how the US likes to conduct its wars. If the United States couldn’t beat the Taliban, they shouldn’t count on beating the Houthis.

Then, of course, there is the question of ‘how well-equipped’ the Houthis are. Take a look:

Over just a few years, Houthi rebels in Yemen have amassed a remarkably diverse array of anti-ship weaponry, incorporating both cruise and ballistic missiles, which they have recently used to threaten shipping in the Red Sea…

In parades in 2022 and 2023, the Houthis unveiled additional ASCMs, including what appeared to be two anti-ship versions of the Iranian Quds/351 LACM. One version is allegedly equipped with a radar-homing seeker (Sayyad), and the other has an electro-optical/infrared seeker (Quds Z-0).
..
…they possess other ISR assets, including UAVs, (drones) nominally civilian vessels used for scouting, open-source information on maritime traffic and data gathered by the Behshad, an Iranian cargo vessel anchored in the Red Sea reported to serve as an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps forward-operating and reconnaissance base. It also seems likely that Iran has equipped the group with coastal radar systems.

The extensive Houthi arsenal raises questions about Iran’s broader strategy in the region. … That suggests a strong, long-term Iranian focus on strengthening Houthi anti-ship capabilities and a potential attempt to export Iran’s model of naval coercion from the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz to the geopolitically important Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Houthi anti-ship missile systems: getting better all the time, IISS

What does this excerpt tell us?

It tells us that the Houthis are a well-armed military force that has equipped itself with the particular weapons it needs for warfare on the Red Sea. It tells us that the Houthis knew there would eventually be a war with the United States for which they would have to be well prepared. It tells us that the US is probably going to suffer significant losses in the conflict ahead and that the fighting will drag on for a number of years disrupting transit on the Red Sea, inflicting massive damage to global supply-lines, and further strengthening anti-American coalitions. All of this could have avoided had the Biden administration chosen to pressure Israel into ending its siege of Gaza and allowing humanitarian aid to reach the Palestinian people. But they chose not to do so.

It’s worth mentioning, that Houthi spokesmen have repeatedly stated that they will only attack US, UK and Israel-linked ships on the Red Sea. All other ships will be permitted to sail the waterway freely without any threat to their safety. The media has tried to mislead the public on this matter by insisting that the attacks are random and indiscriminate, but that is not the case. Here’s a recap from Iran’s Press TV:

Yemen’s Ansarullah resistance movement has promised a “safe passage” for international ships sailing in the Red Sea as the country’s armed forces ramp up their retaliatory attacks on Israeli-owned and -bound vessels in support of Palestinians in the besieged Gaza Strip.

Mohammad al-Bakhiti, a member of Ansarullah’s politburo, made the statement in an interview published by the Russian daily Izvestia on Friday and said the Red Sea was safe so long as ships transiting the strategic waterway were not linked to Israel.

“As far as ships from all other countries, including Russia and China, are concerned, their navigation in the region is not under any threat whatsoever… Moreover, we are ready to ensure the safe passage of their ships in the Red Sea, because free navigation plays a significant role for our country,” he added.

Stressing that attacks on vessels “in any way connected with Israel” will continue, Bakhiti said, “Ansarullah does not pursue the goal of capturing or sinking this or that sea vessel. Our goal is to raise the economic costs” for the Israeli regime “in order to stop the carnage in Gaza.” (Press TV)

It’s a sad day when Iranian state media can be trusted more than any of the hundreds of western news agencies, but that is the state of western media today.

By the way, over 50 humanitarian organizations have joined together (virtually overnight) to voice their opposition to Biden’s labeling of the Houthis as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT). Here’s a brief excerpt from their statement:

While the Houthis share much blame, alongside the Saudi/UAE-led coalition, for horrific human rights violations in Yemen, the designations do nothing to address these concerns. They will, however, prevent the delivery of critical humanitarian assistance to millions of innocent people, greatly hurt the prospects for a negotiated settlement to the conflict, and further undermine U.S. national security interests in the region. Our coalition joins a chorus of growing opposition to the designation, including a bipartisan group of members of Congress, multiple humanitarian organizations operating on the ground in Yemen, and former career diplomats who have served both Republican and Democratic presidents.

Rather than being a catalyst for peace, these designations are a recipe for more conflict and famine, while unnecessarily further undermining U.S. diplomatic credibility.”50 Group Coalition Calls on Biden to Reverse Houthi Terrorist Designation, FCNL

The reason we’ve reprinted the statement here, is because the administration and media have been insisting that the “terrorist” moniker will not lead to mass starvation when, in fact, that’s precisely what it’s designed to do. Biden’s policy is intended to starve Yemen into submission. We need to be clear about how the policy works. The administration plans to kill people in the most agonizing way imaginable to assert control over a scrap of land that is 8,000 miles away from the United States.

We should also be clear as to why the Saudis finally lifted the eight-year-old restrictions on imports headed for Yemen in April 2023. It wasn’t because the Saudis were suddenly struck by pangs of remorse. No. It was because the resourceful Houthis started bombing oil fields and critical infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. That’s what forced the reprobate Saudis back to the bargaining table. Here’s the story from Aljazeera:

Yemen’s Houthis rebels have acknowledged a series of attacks on Saudi Arabia after state media in the kingdom reported rocket and drone strikes targeting an oil depot in Jeddah and other facilities in Riyadh.

A huge plume of black smoke was seen rising from the plant in Jeddah, as the city prepared to host a Formula One race on Sunday. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Sarea said the group attacked Aramco’s facilities with missiles and the Ras Tanura and Rabigh refineries with drones. Sarea added that the attack also targeted vital facilities in the Saudi capital Riyadh.

The attacks targeted “Aramco facilities in Jeddah and vital facilities in the capital of the Saudi enemy, Riyadh”… Facilities of oil giant Aramco were also attacked in Jizan, Najran, Ras Tanura and Rabigh with “a large number of drones”, he added. (Aljazeera)

These attacks took place in March 2022. It wasn’t long after that the Saudis came to their senses and began to seek a negotiated settlement. (Funny how that works.) We fully expect that the current conflagration will produce the same result. As Washington’s war on Yemen gains pace, the Houthis will undoubtedly target Saudi Arabia’s state-run oil facilities sending global shares tumbling while oil prices go through the roof. We think this scenario could prompt emergency diplomacy that could end the hostilities before matters really get out of hand. (That is our hope, at least.) Unfortunately, we have no crystal ball so we’ll have to see how things play out. Check out this brief clip from Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute who mulls-over an entirely different scenario that no one in the administration has even considered. Here’s what he said:

There is a simple reason why U.S. and U.K. military strikes against Yemen’s Houthis will not achieve their objective of re-opening the crucial Red Sea lanes for international shipping: The Houthis don’t have to succeed in striking additional commercial vessels, or even successfully retaliate against U.S. military ships. All they need to do is to try. That is enough to sustain a de facto shipping blockade of the Red Sea, through which a staggering 12% of global trade flows. Many Western commercial vessels will simply not risk moving their ships through those waters, not in spite of President Joe Biden’s military strikes, but now because of them. How Biden Can Stop Houthi Missile AttacksﾗWithout Risking War,ﾠTime

Bingo. The Houthis don’t have to defeat the US in order to win the war. They just have to outlast the US by continuing to threaten commercial transport on the Red Sea. That’s all they need to do. And, with their prodigious stockpile of ballistic missiles and attack drones, they should be able to sustain that effort for years to come, perhaps, forever. Has anyone on the Biden team even thought about that?

We’re convinced that the Biden administration is barking up the wrong tree. There is no military solution to the Houthis blockade on the Red Sea. The US has already launched 5 massive aerial strikes on Yemen blasting more than 70 sites, without any indication that the Houthis offensive capability has been even slightly degraded. For all practical purposes, the current strategy is a complete bust, no material benefit whatsoever.

At the same time, the Houthis have launched their own missile attacks on passing commercial ships 4 out of the last 5 days. The success of these attacks cannot be measured in terms of how many ships were sunk (which is not the goal) but in terms of how many carriers are presently avoiding the world’s most important transit corridor. That number continues to grow by the day which means that –by any concievable metric– the US is losing the war. Which means that Biden is going to up the ante.

But how will escalation change the eventual outcome? Will the deploying of US Special Forces or ground troops to the Arabian peninsula ensure an American victory or should we expect another 20-year Afghanistan-type quagmire? And is the administration really prepared for the inevitable economic slump and stock market turmoil when the sh** hits the fan and the Saudi oil fields are consumed by flames while the shelling of US bases in Iraq and Syria intensifies to a thundering crescendo? Shouldn’t they at least give that a passing thought? Here’s one last excerpt from the World Socialist Web Site:

The launching of military strikes against Yemen marks a new stage in the deepening imperialist military offensive throughout the Middle East and beyond. The US and its imperialist allies are waging a de facto war against Iran, working to eliminate Iran’s military allies throughout the Middle East. The strikes against Yemen are directed at encircling Iran and provoking it into retaliation against US forces, which could be used to justify a full-scale war against Tehran….

Overriding all of this, the United States is involved in a struggle to fend off the challenge posed by China to its global hegemony, which threatens to trigger a shooting war in the Pacific. In the US media and political circles, there is growing talk of a new “axis of evil” involving Iran, China and Russia.

Each one of these conflicts cannot be understood in isolation. The bombing of Yemen is part of a global counter-revolution, in which the imperialist powers are seeking to reestablish direct control over their former colonies…

Every war launched by the US and its imperialist allies has ended in one bloody debacle after the other, with millions of people killed. But each disaster only reinforces the determination of US imperialism to use war as a means to secure its global hegemony.

The US/UK attack on Yemen and the global eruption of imperialist war, World Socialist Web Site

The table is set for a major conflagration in Yemen that will quickly escalate and spread across the entire Middle East. I see no indication that Biden is planning to slow the rush to war or pull back from the brink. This is shaping up to be a real catastrophe.

https://informationclearinghouse.blog/2024/01/22/war-on-yemen-dont-expect-a-cakewalk/13/
 

 

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