The Conversation – August 27, 2024
Israel and Hezbollah step Back from War, but for how Long?
All eyes are now on Iran’s next Move
By Ian Parmeter
For weeks, Israel had been anticipating a major attack from Hezbollah in retaliation for its killing of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Lebanon at the end of July.
In the early hours of Sunday, that attack finally came – and Israel was apparently ready. The Israelis claim to have thwarted what could have been a large-scale Hezbollah assault. At the same time, Hezbollah also claimed success.
So, what can we make of the latest tit-for-tat between the two sides, and where does the region go from here?
How both sides are seeing things
Clearly, both Israel and Hezbollah have stepped back at this stage from any further action. Hezbollah has qualified this by saying this is only the first phase of its response to Shukr’s assassination, and that it reserves the right to strike further after evaluating the success of Sunday’s operation.
Israel claimed to have seen preparations for perhaps a thousand rockets to be launched across the border, and it preemptively sent around 100 aircraft into southern Lebanon and hit 270 targets, including rocket launchers. Hezbollah is believed to be capable of launching 3,000 missiles a day if a full-scale war were to break out.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed the operation as a success, but said it’s not the end of the story and Israel will strike further if need be.
Hezbollah denies Israel’s strikes did much damage, saying it merely fired into “empty valleys”.
At the same time, Hezbollah retaliated by sending a large number of Katyusha rockets into northern Israel. These are not the biggest rockets in its arsenal – they have a limited range of up to 40 kilometres – so they can only hit targets in northern Israel. Hezbollah said the rockets were meant to make way for a wave of drones to go into Israel. One Israeli Navy sailor was killed in the attack.
In his speech by video on Sunday, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, seemed to be apologising to the Lebanese people for putting them in this position. And that’s possibly not surprising, because Hezbollah is both a political and military actor, and it needs to make sure it continues to win votes in the Lebanese political system.
But Nasrallah said Hezbollah had achieved its objectives and the group was encouraging Lebanese who had moved away from the border to go back. However, that may be a bit premature, because it is still unclear how this will all play out.
What is Iran thinking?
Most analysts had been assuming there might be a coordinated revenge attack for both the killing of Shukr in Beirut and the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July. This may have included missiles and rockets from Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and possibly also the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Shi’a militant groups in Syria and Iraq.
But that didn’t happen. And that could mean a few things.
First, Iran at this stage is likely trying to work out the best way of responding to Haniyeh’s killing. In April, it sent over 300 missiles, drones and rockets into Israel in retaliation for the bombing of an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus in which several Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) members were killed. But virtually all of them were shot down and there was no serious damage.
A repeat of that would indicate Iran really doesn’t have the capacity to take serious action against Israel.
At the same time, Iran would also not want to launch a bigger retaliatory strike because that could spark a wider war. And Tehran doesn’t want to give the Americans or Israelis an excuse to launch a concerted attack on its nuclear facilities.
So, Iran is likely trying to work out some mid-point between its April strike and a slightly stronger response. This is clearly taking time.
It may also indicate there’s a debate going inside Iran between those around the newly elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian, who is known to be something of a moderate (in Iranian terms ), and the IRGC, which has been threatening a very hard-line response to Israel for some time.
Iran may have simply decided it will only respond to Israel through its proxies – limited attacks by Hezbollah and the Houthis are all it is willing to do at this stage. But this doesn’t mean the danger is over because the scope for messages to be misunderstood between such hostile antagonists is always there.
Netanyahu under pressure
Netanyahu is also under continued pressure from the right wing of his cabinet, which has long advocated for taking out the Hezbollah threat on Israel’s northern border, even though this is a very difficult task. Israel tried it once before in 2006 and essentially failed.
In addition, about 60,000 Israelis have had to evacuate their homes in northern Israel and are living in temporary accommodation due to the Hezbollah threat. They want Netanyahu to make it safer for them to return.
Responding to military threats on two fronts is difficult for Israel to sustain. Israel’s military has now been been fighting Hamas in Gaza, and to some extent, protecting northern Israel from Hezbollah attacks for nearly 11 months.
The permanent Israeli army is also not that large. It only has about 169,000 regular troops, meaning it must rely on up to 300,000 reservists to meet its current needs.
And the problem with bringing reservists into service: this affects the economy because they leave their jobs. In just the last couple of weeks, the Fitch Ratings agency downgraded Israelﾒs rating from A to A minus, reflecting the fact the economy is not functioning as well as it should be, in addition to the heightened geopolitical risks. The country is on a perpetual war footing, and the military wants to have a break.
However, Netanyahu is wary of any sort of a pause in the fighting because that could upset his coalition and spark an election, which he would probably lose.
His entire strategy since the October 7 Hamas assault has been to reestablish his security credentials. He needs to be able to show he can counter any threat to Israel to restore the public’s faith in him. To do that, he must re-establish the confidence of those who live in northern Israel and stop the attacks from Hezbollah.
It seems this could go on for quite some time, but Hezbollah has also said it will halt its attacks if there’s a ceasefire in Gaza. So in that sense, we’re stuck in a loop that’s not going to stop until there’s a breakthrough in the ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas.
And given the obstacles that remain on both sides, it’s hard to see that happening any time soon.
Ian Parmeter, Research Scholar, Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, Australian National University
https://www.juancole.com/2024/08/israel-hezbollah-irans.html
Informed Comment – August 27, 2024
Morocco: Popular anger against Israel’s war on Gaza Spills into the Streets, Posing Dilemma for Rabat
BY MOHAMED JEGHAM
The Palestinian question has been a central topic for the Arab world for many decades now. Over the years, Arab leaders have used the Palestinian cause as one of their talking points to gain support from the populace. Over the last decade, however, the topic began to lose steam, especially thanks to the Abraham Accords that led to some Arab countries following Egypt and Jordan in normalising diplomatic relations with Israel.
Against opposing voices and detractors, to explain their new-found ties with Israel these nations provided the excuse of seeking peace and stability in the region and a peaceful way for securing a Palestinian state.
But the recent war on Gaza has reignited the importance of ‘the Palestinian question’ and reinvigorated Arabs’ passion for this cause leading to many protests and demonstrations against their countries and against normalisation with Israel.
Over 40 Moroccan cities, including Fez, Marrakesh, Agadir and Tangier, saw regular demonstrations in favor of Palestine this summer. In early August, the Israeli assassination of the head of the civilian Hamas politburo provoked large crowds to come into the streets. Earlier, in Tangier, Morocco, thousands of protesters had filled the streets chanting “Gaza is not alone” in protest at an Israeli ship docking in Tangier. The Israeli newspaper Globes revealed that “The new Israeli Navy landing ship INS Komemiyut docked at the port of Tangier, Morocco, for supplies while sailing from the United States to Israel,”
Not long after, this incident escalated into a full-on demonstration in Tangier where Moroccan anti-normalisation activists condemned the government’s silence and accused the country’s officials of being complicit in the genocide in Gaza.
The normalisation of diplomatic ties with Israel dates back to 2020 when Morocco officially established relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords. The biggest incentive for the Moroccan Kingdom to sign this deal was to gain official recognition from the US for Morocco’s sovereignty over the Western Sahara territory, a territory that’s been under dispute for a long time. While an economic and diplomatic gain for Morocco, no doubt, this deal was not without its difficulties. Morocco and other countries that established relations with Israel had to stifle their own citizens by harassing, censoring and undermining any voices opposing the deal.
However, after the 7th of October and the current state of war in Gaza, Morocco alongside other Arab countries, had to show solidarity with Palestinians despite their involvement with Israel. In the case of Morocco, Rabat officially denounced the war and called Israeli actions “flagrant violations of the provisions of international law”. Yet, the absence of any talk about reversing the Abraham Accords revealed the truth that the leaders of Morocco are walking a tightrope trying to please both their enraged citizens and salvaging relations with The US and Israel. Despite the government’s attempts to play both sides, the streets haven’t been quiet. Since the war on Gaza started, dozens of demonstrations in Morocco erupted in support of Palestine.
The Moroccan government has not been happy about these demonstrations. For instance, on May 15th during Nakba day Rabat local authorities stopped a Pro-Palestinian march from happening over ‘logistical issues.’ Mr. Saied Hannaoui, a leading figure of the Moroccan opposition to normalisation, spoke out about this ban, calling it “a backward authoritarian decision. It reflects the continued tyranny that imposes normalisation on the Moroccan people,”
The crackdown on pro-Palestinian protests is nothing new to Morocco or the region. According to Amnesty International, in recent years, countries like Morocco with close ties to Israel have been wary of any dissent towards their deals with Israel. This led these countries to practice censorship, make arrests and institute a ban demonstrations and any anti-normalisation voices.
However, despite the government’s attempts to restrain its people, Moroccans have expressed their dissatisfaction with the government’s policies and their support for Palestine throughout the war in Gaza.
The major demonstration in Tangier earlier this summer provides an excellent case study of how volatile the situation is in Morocco and other Arab nations. The demonstration, which was organised by the Moroccan Front, saw leftist parties and Islamist movements come together in support of Gaza’s Palestinians and against the continuation of Morocco’s ties with Israel. The choice of the coastal city of Tangier is relevant as reports claim that an Israeli ship coming from the US had docked at Tangier in June to restock. The fact that Morocco had agreed to have an Israeli ship dock at one of its ports escalated tensions between the people and the government. “Allowing the Israeli warship to dock is, unfortunately, a participation in the genocide of the Palestinian people, and support to the Israeli aggression on Gaza,” said Mohamed El-Ghafry, coordinator of the Moroccan Front Against Normalisation.
In a press release, the Front saw that “turning a blind eye to the passage of such ships” as a “violation of the International Court of Justice’s decision following South Africa’s lawsuit against Israel” and “a compromise of our national sovereignty.”
Despite the people’s attempts to sway the government’s opinion on its diplomatic ties with Israel, Morocco seems to see benefits in having these ties with Israel. One anonymous source from the Moroccan foreign ministry insisted in March to Reuters that these ties hold benefits for furthering the cause of the Palestinian people. Whether these claims have merit or not, the people of Morocco do not seem to be swayed by this rhetoric and instead are pushing more and more for Morocco to cancel the Abraham Accords.
The Moroccan government, alongside other Arab countries, is attempting to be supportive of the Palestinian cause while at the same time remaining cordial or even more than cordial with Israel. In light of these recent developments in the country’s streets, is the government’s way of handling this very delicate situation any longer sustainable?
https://www.juancole.com/2024/08/morocco-popular-against.html
For first time, Israeli gov't to finance storming of Al-Aqsa Mosque by illegal settlers
Extremist heritage minister to allocate $545,000 for illegal settlers' funded tours to Al-Aqsa Mosque
The Israeli government will finance for the first time the storming of the Al-Aqsa Mosque by illegal Israeli settlers in the occupied East Jerusalem, local media reported on Monday evening.
According to the Israeli public broadcaster KAN, the office of Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu - an extremist minister known for being anti-Palestinian - will allocate 2 million NIS ($545,000) for the project which is expected to be implemented in the coming weeks.
KAN added that the Heritage Ministry was in contact with the National Security Ministry of extremist Itamar Ben-Gvir to obtain the Israeli police permission for the settlers' funded tours to Al-Aqsa
.Earlier on Monday, Ben-Gvir told the Israeli Army Radio that his policy is to "allow Jews to perform prayers inside the Temple Mount (in reference to Al-Aqsa Mosque)," noting that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu knew his policy before forming the coalition government.
The announcement comes despite repeated claims by Netanyahu to preserve the status quo at Al-Aqsa Mosque.The status quo at Al-Aqsa Mosque is the situation that existed before Israel occupied East Jerusalem in 1967, under which the Jerusalem Islamic Waqf, affiliated with the Jordanian Ministry of Endowments, is responsible for managing the mosque's affairs.
However, in 2003, Israeli authorities changed this status by allowing settlers to enter Al-Aqsa Mosque without the approval of the Islamic Waqf, which demands an end to these incursions.
Ben-Gvir claimed Monday that Jews have the right to pray at Al-Aqsa Mosque, saying that he would build a synagogue at the flashpoint site.
It was the first time for the Israeli minister to openly speak about building a synagogue inside the Al-Aqsa Mosque. However, he has repeatedly called in recent months for allowing Jewish prayers at the site.His call came amid repeated incursions into the complex by illegal Israeli settlers under police protection.
Al-Aqsa Mosque is considered the third holiest site in Islam. Jews refer to the area as the Temple Mount, believing it to be the location of two ancient Jewish temples.
Israeli minister's synagogue proposal inside Al-Aqsa Mosque
further inflaming tensions, UN warns
'These types of statements are highly counterproductive to say the least,' says UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric
The UN on Monday denounced Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's recent remarks on building a synagogue inside the Al-Aqsa Mosque site in occupied East Jerusalem, saying they were "highly counterproductive."
"These types of statements are highly counterproductive, to say the least. They risk inflaming a situation which is already bone dry," UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric told reporters in a news conference.
Highlighting the sensitivity surrounding the status of holy sites in Jerusalem, Dujarric said that, "There is a status quo agreed to the parties for the holy sites in Jerusalem that must be respected by all.
"He urged adherence to this agreement, in actions as well as public statements, to avoid escalating tensions further.Ben-Gvir claimed Monday that Jews have the right to pray at Al-Aqsa Mosque, saying that he would build a synagogue at the flashpoint site.
It was the first time for the Israeli minister to openly speak about building a synagogue inside the Al-Aqsa Mosque. However, he has repeatedly called in recent months for allowing Jewish prayers at the site.His call came amid repeated incursions into the complex by illegal Israeli settlers under police protection.
Al-Aqsa Mosque is considered the third holiest site in Islam. Jews refer to the area as the Temple Mount, believing it to be the location of two ancient Jewish temples.Asked about recent reports of a senior UN official stating that UN aid operations in Gaza have been halted after latest Israeli evacuation orders at Deir al Balah, Dujarric said UNRWA, the agency for Palestine refugees, was able to operate as "they are embedded with the population."
"What our senior UN official was referring to, is UN officials and UN humanitarian staff moving about and trying to get to places (in Gaza)," he added.Israel has continued its brutal offensive on the Gaza Strip following an attack by the Palestinian group Hamas last Oct. 7, despite a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate cease-fire.
The onslaught has resulted in over 40,400 Palestinian deaths, mostly women and children, and over 93,500 injuries, according to local health authorities.An ongoing blockade of Gaza has led to severe shortages of food, clean water and medicine, leaving much of the region in ruins.
Israel faces accusations of genocide at the International Court of Justice, which has ordered a halt to military operations in the southern city of Rafah, where over one million Palestinians had sought refuge before the area was invaded on May 6.
Palestine to apply for BRICS membership after upcoming Kazan summit
Palestinian ambassador to Moscow says 'despite all killings and destruction in Gaza, Palestine wants to live and to develop
'Palestine is expected to submit its application to join the BRICS, a group of emerging economies, after its upcoming summit in October in the city of Kazan, southwestern Russia.
Russian state news agency TASS quoted the Palestinian ambassador to Moscow, Abdel Hafiz Nofal, as saying that Palestine will lodge its application for joining BRICS after attending the summit.
"Russian President Vladimir Putin promised that one session would be fully devoted to Palestine," the Palestinian ambassador said. Earlier, Putin invited Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to attend the BRICS summit in Kazan.
"This invitation means that despite all the crimes, killings and destruction in the Gaza Strip, our message is that Palestine wants to live and to develop," Ambassador Nofal added.BRICS includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
In January, it welcomed Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE as full members.Russia took over the BRICS' year-long presidency on Jan. 1, 2024.
https://www.yenisafak.com/en/world/palestine-to-apply-for-brics-membership-after-upcoming-kazan-summit-3689924
Israel's impunity threatens the international liberal order
by İhsan Faruk Kılavuz
Despite surfacing records of mistreatment and torture of Palestinian detainees at Sde Teiman Prison, international authorities have yet to take action against the Israeli government
“Give us what we need, and let us finish this quickly.”
When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made this statement in the U.S. Congress, it reflected more than just a call for military support from the West. It emphasized a demand for political backing from international actors, or at the very least, a request not to obstruct Israel’s actions.
Western governments and much of the international community have long ignored Israel’s breaches of international law, effectively granting it impunity. This perceived immunity has allowed Israel to routinely violate international norms with a growing sense of confidence, making such breaches a standard state policy since its inception.
Among Israel’s numerous international law violations, the most glaring are its state-sanctioned genocide and other war crimes. Such severe breaches would normally provoke concern from the international community and judicial bodies. However, Israel’s support from the international community has encouraged it to carry out these violations more openly and audaciously, challenging the global liberal order.
A lawless blackhole: Sde Teiman Prison
A particularly notable recent example of Israel’s breaches of international norms is the exposure of torture and mistreatment of detainees at Sde Teiman Prison, a segment of the military facility where Palestinians from Gaza have been held since Oct.7.
Recent reports highlight severe mistreatment and torture, including the gang rape of a detainee by nine soldiers. This incident has drawn renewed attention to the prison, but abuses have been ongoing since the Gaza conflict began.
An investigative report by CNN on May 11, based on testimonies from Israeli whistleblowers and former detainees, detailed widespread abuse at Sde Teiman, including physical restraints, beatings, medical neglect and humiliating treatment. U.N. reports have documented additional forms of torture, such as electric shocks and waterboarding. These practices have led to the deaths of approximately 36 Palestinians at the prison.
Sde Teiman’s practices breach international standards against torture and degrading treatment, making Israel liable under international law. As a signatory to both the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) and the Convention against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment (UNCAT), Israel is obligated to uphold prohibitions against such acts. Additionally, these actions qualify as war crimes under the Rome Statute and customary international humanitarian law, warranting prosecution by the International Criminal Court. Consequently, the State of Israel, along with all Israeli officials involved or complicit with these criminal acts, is legally accountable for these violations.
Israel’s incessant war crimes
Israel’s assassination of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran was a horrendous instance in its track record of targeted killings in other countries. This act, which targeted a significant figure involved in cease-fire and peace talks, not only demonstrated Tel Aviv’s unwillingness to pursue a political solution but also violated international legal norms.
The attack on Haniyeh in Iran is classified as a "crime of aggression," which international law considers a war crime. This crime is defined as one state’s use of armed force against another state’s sovereignty, territorial integrity or political independence in violation of the U.N. Charter. Such acts are prohibited by the U.N. Charter and recognized as war crimes under the Rome Statute and customary international law.
This incident violated Iran’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, as it targeted a guest under diplomatic protection and occurred on Iranian soil. The crime of aggression specifically concerns the unlawful initiation of conflict rather than actions within an existing conflict. In this case, Tel Aviv’s provocative move, which seems intended to provoke a confrontation with Iran, meets the criteria for the crime of aggression.
On the other hand, Israel cannot justify this action as self-defense, which only applies when a state is actively under attack, and the response is proportional to repel that attack. The assassination did not aim to prevent an imminent threat to Israel. Additionally, Israel’s assertion that the attack was not carried out by air does not lessen or eliminate the crime of aggression. International law does not require a specific method of attack to qualify as aggression; any attack on another sovereign state is considered a violation, regardless of the means used.
Therefore, Israel must be held accountable under international law for this politically motivated assassination carried out through a direct attack on Iranian soil.
Time to curb Israel’s aggression
The impunity granted to Israel has evolved into a dangerous dimension, increasingly threatening the foundational pillars of the liberal international order. The West, led by the United States, is turning a blind eye to the political fantasies of Israel’s far-right government, driven by theocratic motivations.
The international community’s response to Tel Aviv’s attempts to escalate the conflict in the region has so far amounted to nothing more than ineffective warnings that the region is on the brink of widespread war and that actors should tread carefully. However, international actors understand that unless political, judicial, and even military measures through the U.N. Security Council are taken to curb Israel’s aggression, the flames engulfing the Middle East will spread to other parts of the world, further destabilizing the already fragile liberal international order.
Therefore, ending the encouragement of war criminals by applauding loudly and taking concrete steps against their war on fundamental human values is an indispensable historical responsibility for every actor committed to maintaining global peace. In conclusion, it must be acknowledged that the threat in the region is not directed toward Israel but rather that Israel poses a threat to other regional actors and, ultimately, to global peace.
It is time to end Israel’s impunity or else the Jewish state’s hubris, genocidal actions and recurrent provocations create a powder keg, whose first victim will be the international liberal order, which already is becoming less liberal, less global and definitively less orderly.
https://www.dailysabah.com/opinion/op-ed/israels-impunity-threatens-the-international-liberal-order
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Editor in chief:
Abdus Sattar Ghazali
Senior Editor:
Prof. Arthur Scott
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